Aug 4, 2023
Steve Kirsch posed the following problem:
He has a dataset of 7500 people of whom 5625 were vaxxed; 1875 were unvaxxed
Over a period of 6 months (182 days) 15 people died, ALL from the vaxxed group
Of the 15 who died, 4 died within 24 hours of getting the vaccine.
Steve asked what’s the probability of this happening if the vaxx was safe?
Here’s how I answered it using Bayes Theorem to combine the different pieces of evidence. (Note: this assumes the data is accurate, ignores all confounders like age, and assumes the vaxxed and unvaxxed are similar types of people)
Software used for the Bayesian network analysis is https://www.agena.ai/