Category: Corona Virus

COVID Death Rate Estimates Plummeted Since Beginning of the Year

by Brooke Conrad,
Sinclair Broadcast Group
Friday, December 18th 2020

WASHINGTON (SBG) – Data on COVID-19 deaths has changed drastically since the beginning of the year. The New York Times reported in April that the COVID case fatality rate — the number of known cases divided by the number of deaths — was 6.4%. Currently, the case fatality rate is probably closer to 1%, according to Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

Adalja estimates the infection fatality rate, which estimates how likely someone is to die based on both confirmed and unconfirmed COVID cases, is lower– around 0.5 or 0.6%. That number depends on how good the COVID testing is, Adalja said.

Adalja noted that it’s essential to know the contributing factors leading to COVID deaths.

“COVID-19 may be the main cause of death, which was complicated by diabetes, complicated by hypertension,” he said. “And all of those deaths need to be counted because they do represent the true toll and the true impact of the pandemic.”

He said the contributing factors are critical to know when analyzing who should be prioritized in COVID vaccine distribution, he said.

Other researchers project a lower COVID-19 fatality rate. In an October study published by the World Health Organization, Stanford University Professor John Ioannidis estimated that the death rate was closer to 0.05%. According to the Daily Mail, for healthy people under age 70, that would be one in 2,000 people.

According to an article in The Conversation by Monica Gandhi, practicing infection disease doctor at the University of California, San Francisco, several researchers suggest that the lower death rates stem from improved treatments. One study in the Journal of Hospital Medicine shows the chance of death for a hospitalized patient dropped from 25.6% in March to 7.6% in August.

https://wjla.com/news/nation-world/covid-death-rate-estimates-plummeted-since-beginning-of-the-year

Defining CFR (Case Fatality Rate) to Calculate SURVIVAL RATE (updated Jan 2, 2021)

Before we begin please remember that those who have the virus, but have never been tested (likely b/c they are asymptomatic) are not included in these calculations. If they were the USA survival rate would be higher than calculated here.

In order to better understand CFR we consider definition in this link from Britannica.

Case fatality rate, also called case fatality risk or case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

We take current stats from WORLDOMETER and apply the definition for a rough estimate:

Case Fatality Rate for USA

Actual Cases with an outcome as of Jan 2, 2021 = estimated actual recovered (12,179,238) + estimated actual deaths (356,450) = 12,535,688

Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = Deaths / Cases = 356,450 / 12,535,688 = 0.0284348175 = 2.8%

Our crude estimate shows that approximately 97.2% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 recover (100% – 2.8% = 97.2%). Keep in mind covid deaths are very likely overstated, and covid cases are very likely underreported.

This calculation includes all cases, of all ages, with & without comorbidities.

Had we used the number of USA cases at WORLDOMETER, 20,619,032 as of Jan 2, 2021, our survival rate would look much higher: 356,450 / 20,619,032 = 0.0172874265 = 1.7%, yielding a survival rate of 98.3%. But the 97.2% survival rate calculated above is a much more conservative figure.

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Now lets compare our national Dec 6, 2020 Survival Rate with our current Jan 2, 2021 Survival Rate:

Dec 6, 2020 Survival Rate = 96.9%

Jan 2, 2021 Survival Rate = 97.2%

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Let’s consider California, Jan 2, 2021, as it is now surging:

971,395 + 26,294 = 997,689

26,294 ÷ 997,689 = 0.0263549062 = 2.6%

100 – 2.6 = 97.4%

Thus Jan 2, 2021 Calif Survival Rate = 97.4%

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Let’s consider Texas, Jan 2, 2021:

1,453,639 + 28,506 = 1,482,145

28,506 ÷ 1,482,145 = 0.019232936 = 1.9%

100 – 1.9% = 98.1%

Thus Jan 2, 2021 Texas Survival Rate = 98.1%

Treatment Info

INFORMATION ONLY – NOT GUARANTEED ACCURATE. NOT MEDICAL ADVICE – CONSULT A DOCTOR

Just want you to know about a website I found:

exstnc.com

Lots of info at this exstnc.com When you get there click on menu, upper right side box:

* DIRECTORY (list of medical sources by regions for IVM & HCQ).

* TREATMENT (many items listed here).

* DIET (these are food sources of recommended supplements).

* EVIDENCE (various studies & observations).

* CONTACT

Additional IVM medical source:

push.com (click on REQUEST CARE, click on IVERMECTIN, click on REQUEST ORAL IVERMECTIN, click on your state)