Defining CFR, Case Fatality Rate (Dec 6, 2020)

In order to better understand CFR we consider definition in this link from Britannica.

Case fatality rate, also called case fatality risk or case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

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We take current stats from WORLDOMETER and apply the definition for a rough estimate:

Case Fatality Rate for USA

Actual Cases with an outcome as of Dec 9 = estimated actual recovered (9,088,387) + estimated actual deaths (293,496) = 9,381,883

Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = Deaths / Cases = 293,496 / 9,381,883 = 0.03128327223 = 3.1%

Our crude estimate shows that approximately 96.9% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 recover (100% – 3.1% = 96.9%). Keep in mind covid deaths are very likely overstated, and covid cases are very likely underreported.

This calculation includes all cases, of all ages, with & without comorbidities.

Had we used the number of USA cases at WORLDOMETER, 15,607,655 as of Dec 9, our survival rate would look much higher: 293,496 / 15,607,655 = 0.019 = 1.9%, yielding a survival rate of 98.1%. But the 96.9% survival rate calculated above is a much more conservative figure.

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