Before we begin please remember that those who have the virus, but have never been tested (likely b/c they are asymptomatic) are not included in these calculations. If they were the USA survival rate would be higher than calculated here.
In order to better understand CFR we consider definition in this link from Britannica.
Case fatality rate, also called case fatality risk or case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.
We take current stats from WORLDOMETER and apply the definition for a rough estimate:
Case Fatality Rate for USA
Actual Cases with an outcome as of Jan 2, 2021 = estimated actual recovered (12,179,238) + estimated actual deaths (356,450) = 12,535,688
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = Deaths / Cases = 356,450 / 12,535,688 = 0.0284348175 = 2.8%
Our crude estimate shows that approximately 97.2% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 recover (100% – 2.8% = 97.2%). Keep in mind covid deaths are very likely overstated, and covid cases are very likely underreported.
This calculation includes all cases, of all ages, with & without comorbidities.
Had we used the number of USA cases at WORLDOMETER, 20,619,032 as of Jan 2, 2021, our survival rate would look much higher: 356,450 / 20,619,032 = 0.0172874265 = 1.7%, yielding a survival rate of 98.3%. But the 97.2% survival rate calculated above is a much more conservative figure.
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Now lets compare our national Dec 6, 2020 Survival Rate with our current Jan 2, 2021 Survival Rate:
Dec 6, 2020 Survival Rate = 96.9%
Jan 2, 2021 Survival Rate = 97.2%
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Let’s consider California, Jan 2, 2021, as it is now surging:
971,395 + 26,294 = 997,689
26,294 ÷ 997,689 = 0.0263549062 = 2.6%
100 – 2.6 = 97.4%
Thus Jan 2, 2021 Calif Survival Rate = 97.4%
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Let’s consider Texas, Jan 2, 2021:
1,453,639 + 28,506 = 1,482,145
28,506 ÷ 1,482,145 = 0.019232936 = 1.9%
100 – 1.9% = 98.1%
Thus Jan 2, 2021 Texas Survival Rate = 98.1%